Posted: 2:44 am EST
Updated: 10:33 am PST headline.
On January 23, 2019, Venezuela President Nicholas Madurobreak diplomatic relations with the United States. The U.S. diplomats in Venezuela were given 72 hours to leave the country. The announcement followed President Trump’s recognition of the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela. Later on January 23, the State Department issued a statement on the continuing U.S. presence in Venezuela, stating that it does not recognize the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela nor does it recognize the legal authority of “former President Nicolas Maduro” to break diplomatic relations with the United States or to declare U.S. diplomats in the country persona non grata. The State Department statement also called on the Venezuelan military and security forces to “continue protecting the welfare and well being of all Venezuelan citizens, as well as U.S. and foreign citizens in Venezuela.” And that “the United States will take appropriate actions to hold accountable anyone who endangers the safety and security of our mission and its personnel.”
Perhaps popular support is with Juan Guaido as the Interim President of Venezuela, but the levers of power in government appears to remain with Maduro. And we doubt very much that Maduro will just step down quietly or peacefully just because the United States called on him to do so. In fact, he just called on the hardened and combatant people to be vigilant and to mobilized and defend the stability of the fatherland. “¡Ni golpismo, ni intervencionismo.” No coups, no interventionism.
In a related note, Senator Rubio suggests on Twitter that U.S. diplomats present their credentials to the interim president. Diplomats typically present credentials through the ministry of foreign affairs. For now, it looks like on its website and on Twitter — @CancilleriaVE— that government arm is still squarely behind Maduro.
In the meantime, Embassy Caracas issued a Security Alert noting that visa services have been cancelled but that they are keeping normal business hours for U.S. citizen emergency services. The alert also indicates that “U.S. government personnel have been asked to keep their preschool and school aged children home from school on January 24.”
U.S. citizens are advised that protests may continue through the rest of the week. The U.S. Embassy will maintain normal business hours and will receive any U.S. citizens needing emergency services on January 24, 2019 from 8:00am to 3:00pm. However, all visa appointments for January 24, 2019 have been cancelled. In addition, the movement of U.S. government personnel will be restricted to the following neighborhoods in Caracas: Valle Arriba and Santa Fe, as well as the Escuela Campo Alegre (ECA). U.S. government personnel have been asked to keep their preschool and school aged children home from school on January 24.
We understand that there are several dozens diplomats and family members in Caracas right now. Previous events indicate that in situations like this, there is typically an authorized or ordered departure, diplomatic terms for optional and mandatory evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family members. The goal is to minimize the footprint in country. Family members and non-emergency personnel gets an option to voluntarily depart first. As situation deteriorates, the State Department in the past declared posts/missions on “ordered departure” where leaving is mandatory for non-emergency personnel and almost always, for all family members.
Since the Embassy Alert has made reference to keeping preschool and school aged children home from school on January 24, we have a few questions:
#1. We understand that this recognition was not a surprise. We note that POTUS statement of recognition went up first, followed by VPOTUS video to Venezuelans, and the message of support later amplified by Secretary Pompeo. If so, why was there no authorized or ordered departure prior to the Trump Administration’s Guaido recognition announcement?
#2. Later on the 23rd, Secretary Pompeo released that statement about the continuing diplomatic presence in Venezuela. Again, if this was a well-thought out plan, why were non-emergency personnel and family members not ordered out of the country. Non-emergency personnel need not have to be there. Family members need not have to be there. So why are they there? A blog pal told us, “I can’t think of a single good reason why they didn’t send families and non-emergency staff out already”. Well, we sort of can. Now that the State Department has declared the United States’ continuing presence in Venezuela after Maduro cut off diplomatic relations and ordered the departure of all diplomats, it would look — bad/weak/take your pick — if the USG suddenly starts moving non-emergency personnel and family members out of the country. The thing is, they could have done all that earlier, but they did not. Why not?
#3. Since Maduro appears to still hold power in the country, including military and security forces, the USG’s non-recognition of his government has consequences for our people on the ground. After 72 hours passes, what diplomatic protection is afforded U.S. diplomats who have been declared “not welcome” in their host country? One Maduro ally has reportedly already said that there will be “no prerogatives for U.S. diplomats.” What that means exactly, we’ll have three days to wait and see.
#4. Pompeo’s statement on continuing U.S. presence appears to be baiting Maduro, calling him a “former persident” with no authority in a country he still runs, and at the same time threatening appropriate actions to hold accountable anyone who endangers the safety and security of our mission and its personnel. So the United States will retaliate if Maduro or his people harm unpaid US-government workers and their families at the US Mission in Caracas. Oh, look who are lining up behind Nicolas Maduro!
#5. Also last one – a cornered animal is a dangerous one. And humans, the most dangerous of all.
Looks like the US won’t pull its diplomats out of Venezuela. Yet. pic.twitter.com/HC5EZ1vZ0v
— Nahal Toosi (@nahaltoosi) January 24, 2019
And trust me on this one, if Maduro is stupid enough to test @realdonaldtrump by harming any U.S. diplomat, the consequences would be swift & severe.
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) January 23, 2019
Nicolás Maduro orders U.S. diplomatic personnel out of Venezuela within 72 hours.
The U.S. claims not to recognize his right to speak for Venezuela on such matters.
So what does Maduro do if they don't leave?
— Caracas Chronicles (@CaracasChron) January 23, 2019
By the end of the day, it's likely that every large country in the Western Hemisphere except Mexico will have recognized Juan Guaidó's claim to the Venezuelan presidency.
Yet Juan Guaidó plainly doesn't control Venezuela's security services, or its government.
— Caracas Chronicles (@CaracasChron) January 23, 2019
It's hard to overstate the uncertainty in Venezuela right now. More or less anything could happen in Venezuela over the next 72 hours. https://t.co/xMluJVMxFu
— Francisco Toro (@QuicoToro) January 23, 2019
Very much hope you are right. But that’s not what Sec Pompeo is saying. Diplomatic immunity depends on host government. If diplomats stay after immunity expires, they can be subject to arrest. Remember Tehran? Hope Pompeo does. https://t.co/FKsmbQ5Zs8
— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) January 24, 2019
"U.S. government personnel have been asked to keep their preschool and school aged children home from school on January 24." https://t.co/S0KJrUXlwW
— Diplopundit (@Diplopundit) January 24, 2019
And then this: Diosdado Cabello, President of the Constituent Assembly in Venezuela under Maduro reportedly says that there will be no prerogatives for U.S. diplomats. “Maybe the light goes in that sector, the gas doesn’t come,” said Cabello as “things that could happen” at the Americans.
#MinutoAMinuto #23E: Cabello dice que no habrá prerrogativas a diplomáticos de Estados Unidos. “A lo mejor se va la luz en ese sector, no llega el gas”, dijo Cabello como “cosas que pudieran ocurrir” en la embajada estadounidense https://t.co/n2xzArHfe2 pic.twitter.com/WB28AQS2nP
— Jimena Tavel (@taveljimena) January 24, 2019